The big news following the Packers loss against the Lions has been the poor production of the potent Packer offense. The Packers’ colossal struggles on offense have people asking whether Aaron and the offense will continue to stagger through the next several games, or whether the team will right the waterlogged ship and move back into the top ten offenses in the league.
One of the things that surprised me about the lack of offensive production was the fact that Aaron just seemed off. There were times when poor reads and incorrect patterns by the wide receivers were at the root of the problems troubling the passing attack. But there were also times when Aaron missed reads and just… didn’t look like Aaron.
Dark Clouds
To begin with, we seem to be taking a worrisome step back in time. In the first three games Aaron has been sacked nine times. He’s third in the league in that category. While this largely falls on the shoulders of the offensive line, some of it is Aaron’s fault. We’ve said before that Aaron holds the ball far too long at times.
Of course, the fact that Aaron holds the ball a long time also means he doesn’t throw interceptions very often. It’s a trademark we’ve seen from Aaron throughout the years and he’s still been very secure with the ball this season. In the first three games, Aaron has only had the one bizzare pick that slipped through the usually sticky fingers of Jordy Nelson and floated in the air rather than dropping to the ground.
Aaron currently ranks #17 in passing yards among the league’s quarterbacks. And, it’s no wonder. He’s also #15 in passing attempts. It’s hard to get yards when you’re not throwing the ball. This is a fact that would be irrelevant if our ground game was chewing up yards… but it’s not.
Silver Lining
While Aaron has been less than himself, he has turned things on in the second half. He doesn’t make the top ten in first quarter completions, but he’s #6 in fourth quarter completion percentage with 70.6%. It’s been kind of a “too little too late” situation, but we want to see our quarterback step up as the game wears on.
Likewise, Rodgers is #14 in touchdown passes in the first half, but when he gets to the second half he ranks #6 in strikes to pay dirt.
Finally, when the downs are used up, he’s been the best in the league. On third down, Rodgers has completed 57% of his passes and is #1 in the league in that category. This might explain why, while not a great decision according to fans, McCarthy had confidence enough to go for it on fourth down in the Jets game.
Light at the End of the Tunnel
I think the thing we all need to keep in mind is that most of the stats above are uncharacteristic of Aaron Rodgers and our Packer offense. Just as Mason worked through his slump and is now solid again, Aaron and company will work through this and run up the scoreboard again. The rookies that have gotten a lot of playing time in the first three games will begin to play more like seasoned veterans, and the timing will return to the Packers offense.
And, I believe, it happens in Soldier Field on Sunday.
I surely hope so J.R. because like I stated in another column here if they lose this game it is gonna be very hard to climb back to win the NFC North this year, And God forbid if they lose to the Vikings as well. I’m not sure what it is but Aaron just don’t want to spread the ball around, He needs to trust his players ALL of them rookies alike! If they drop one who cares go right back to them…They made this team for a reason! Everyone makes mistakes the thing is to learn from them and improve on them. R. Rodgers has had one pass thrown his way in three games and he dropped it..So what he has great hands and is great on YAC so throw the dang rock at him. If they keep dropping them then it’s time to bench them like Boykin IMO he has been the worst problem in the passing game through three games so bench him. Put Janis in this kid cant do any worse and might even surprise people!
In preseason the Packers’ starting offense looked very sharp against the Rams. Then they struggled against the Raiders, needing 5 drives to get 2 scores. Then they took the last game off. It’s no wonder they haven’t been in any sort of rhythm to start the season. Every year (other than 2011) the Packers offense starts slowly under McCarthy. In contrast, Holmgren played his starters for a full half in the last preseason games and started seasons quickly.
I still say that the bulk of these problems on offense come down to play calling – not calling plays to our strengths. When you hand the ball to a RB whom is flat footed and 4 yards behind the line against good defensive lines in the NFL, chances are it’s going to be stuffed for a loss. Add to that the fact that we have a banged up RT, a 2nd year LT, and a rookie C, and it’s no wonder we can’t open holes for the run game against the better defensive lines in the NFL. Delays and draws don’t work against these fronts even with pro bowlers on the offensive line. And while all media is quick to point out that the Lions dared to run the ball, they fail to pick up on the fact that every time Rodgers audibled to a run play – the D also audibled to stack the box or run blitz. Advantage defense.
The 2nd half stats are no surprise, as we’ve had to abandon the run game and score points quickly to come back in every game. There’s been a point in every game that that offense actually hurried up and got in a rhythm, although in most cases McCarthy resorted to run plays on 1st downs and after big plays – which were again stuffed for negative yardage. D’s haven’t stopped us, our play calling has consistently put us in 2nd or 3rd and long situations.
We started out trying to pound the ball vs Seattle, and resorted to relying on Rodgers’ arm in the 2nd half, while still avoiding 1/3 of the field. In Jets game, after failing to establish the run and desperately needing points, McCarthy went to 2 minute offense to score the TD at the end of the half and for the start of the 2nd half. Once he got a lead, he went back to a non-existent run game and failed to move the ball again. Then comes Detroit, and the pattern continued.
McCarthy can blame players, execution, and fundamentals until the cows come home. But the fundamental problems start and end with his play calling. Until he learns to keep defenses off balance and drops those delayed hand offs from his play book, this is going to be a long season for Packers fans.
Rodgers has always held the ball too long. He seems to ignore open receivers underneath and force the ball long consistently. He takes sacks which move us out of FG position – rookie mistakes that he’s never corrected in his game.
I’m hopeful that we can correct some of this and beat the Bears, but I’m not optimistic since McCarthy has yet to point the finger at himself and Rodgers hasn’t improved parts of his game.
Both legitimate comments…. Go Pack Go!
Here’s the skinny…A.) defense has, and will continue to suck until Capers is gone. Without a good defense, the weight on Aaron and company is pretty damn heavy. This is exacerbated by the fact of point B.) We need a solid, separate individual at Offensive Coordinator. Expecting McCarthy to do double-duty fixing troubles on both sides of the ball is going to leave us flat until the day Aaron retires. Watched these boys all my life. If Brass doesn’t get shaking up shortly to make “good” of all their resources, the Pack is going to residually fall back to the way they were back in the 70’s. Sorry. But fact. Ron Wolf wouldn’t let what’s going on now continue. So what’s up there Ted?
Twitter: GPN_JR
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You and I watched very different games Sunday. The defensive was outstanding.
Agreed
Now that the Bears game is over, I think a lot of what you said was proven wrong. The Packers’ strength is passing the ball. When they do so creatively, they’re still tough to beat. We don’t need a top 5 D or big run game. We need to protect Rodgers, spread the ball around, have enough of a run game to keep Ds somewhat honest, and have our own D get a few stops each game. It worked in 2011 to a 15-1 record and it worked again today.
I think that Rogers may have had a run in with his spouse. Any chance that he got a 4 iron smashed into his car window? If not something is really wrong. What say you.
He does seem a little off. But he is great and he will do it today……